Frost & Sullivan, a fast-growing markets for specialized management consultancy, has published a study on the growth of car sharing. $ 10,000 for the detailed study is buying. But even the press release was well received rain in the media. The starting point was the press release from Frost & Sullivan in the U.S. end of January. This was in the U.S. car-sharing Blog picked up a few days later and led to discussions in the United States.
But in Germany came to the message until the German press release from Frost & Sullivan mid-February. The press release was now in the online media such as Focus , Heise cars, Yahoo , car fleet online and Pressetext.ch and other again.
The key findings: The study forecasts that use almost 10 million people worldwide in 2016 150 000 car-sharing vehicles in Europe it will be 5.5 million and 77,000 cars, of which alone 1.1 million people and 19,000 cars in Germany. Germany is outstanding in one respect: The introduction of electric vehicles into car sharing is to be particularly exemplary, as the consultants assume that there will be 2015 80.000 already charging stations in Germany. This will result in 2016 20% of car sharing vehicles electric vehicles.
The extremely positive forecasts and share most of the media in direct connection with the activities of the major automobile companies (Daimler car2go, Mu by Peugeot). This acts against the background of Sixticarclub, Flink Ster / DB Carsharing, connect by Hertz and not properly car2go new, and yet it is a new level. Car-sharing has not only arrived in the minds of corporations, but also inspires the imagination.
The large numbers that identifies the study are not new for the German car-sharing. Even the famous tree / Pesch study was started in 1994 from a potential of 2.45 million people. The ZDK was in 2001 under his concept km lease even than 7 million potential customers from the scientists and Loose Nobis 2004 by 1.5-2 million, and the Wupptertal Institute predicted in 2008 for 2020 of 5 million potential participants.
short: Large numbers (such as 1,1 million members of the Frost & Sullivan study), the German car-sharing has known since the beginning. The new quality is not that there is talk of potential, but on prognosis.
I think it makes the car sharing is not bad if you keep doubling the market every 2 years is too optimistic. I do not think it is audacious to even see a certain connection between the appearance of this very positive study and the planned IPO for this year Zipcar.
With so many numbers I will risk my times from cover, and make its own assessment. I suspect that will double the "old" European car-sharing markets continue every 5 years and the growth in the relatively new, larger markets (U.S., GB, F) of currently doubling every 2 years for a doubling every 4 years " calmed down ". As a result, the car sharing should be at about 60,000 cars worldwide in Germany are at 11,000 vehicles.
Whether the business in 2016 largely from the companies such as DB / Daimler / Peugeot / Sixt / Hertz is dominated, to be seen. If not, would also not new to the German car-sharing. Already Avis, Volkswagen, Ericsson and Shell have your car-sharing approaches can sleep again.
